UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
May 16, 2026 •
Fight-by-fight prediction accuracy
13
Fights
13
Scored Picks
8
Correct
62%
Accuracy
Method Tracking
4/13 exact methods
Exact Method Accuracy
31%
Winner + finish bucket both correct
Data Coverage
0
0 missing result method • 0 missing predicted method
Post-Fight Recap
The model went 8/13 (62%) on this card. Exact methods landed 4/13 (31%). Best call: Vieira at 85% confidence. Biggest miss: Petroski at 85% confidence. Solid card for the model.
Fight-by-Fight Results
| Fighter A | Fighter B | Predicted | Confidence | Pred Method | Actual Winner | Actual Method | Scored | Source | Winner Result | Method Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira ← pick | Jacqueline Cavalcanti | Vieira |
85%
Strong
|
DEC9% | Vieira | DEC | May 17, 09:50 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Tuco Tokkos | Ivan Erslan ← pick | Erslan |
51%
Coin flip
|
KO/TKO29% | Erslan | DEC | May 17, 09:50 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Miss |
| Khaos Williams ← pick | Nikolay Veretennikov | Williams |
50%
Coin flip
|
KO/TKO26% | Williams | KO/TKO | May 17, 09:50 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Bernardo Sopaj ← pick | Timmy Cuamba | Sopaj |
54%
Coin flip
|
DEC36% | Sopaj | SUB | May 17, 09:50 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Miss |
| Arnold Allen ← pick | Melquizael Costa | Allen |
50%
Coin flip
|
DEC22% | Allen | DEC | May 17, 09:50 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Nicolle Caliari | Shauna Bannon ← pick | Bannon |
54%
Coin flip
|
KO/TKO27% | Caliari | SUB | May 17, 09:50 PM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |
| Daniel Barez ← pick | Luis Gurule | Barez |
51%
Coin flip
|
KO/TKO30% | Gurule | DEC | May 17, 09:50 PM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |
| Alice Ardelean ← pick | Polyana Viana | Ardelean |
85%
Strong
|
DEC35% | Ardelean | SUB | May 17, 09:50 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Miss |
| Cody Brundage | Andre Petroski ← pick | Petroski |
85%
Strong
|
DEC39% | Brundage | KO/TKO | May 17, 09:50 PM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |
| Tommy Gantt ← pick | Artur Minev | Gantt |
50%
Coin flip
|
KO/TKO21% | Gantt | KO/TKO | May 17, 09:50 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Modestas Bukauskas ← pick | Christian Edwards | Bukauskas |
54%
Coin flip
|
KO/TKO29% | Bukauskas | DEC | May 17, 09:50 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Miss |
| Malcolm Wellmaker ← pick | Juan Diaz | Wellmaker |
75%
Strong
|
KO/TKO46% | Diaz | SUB | May 17, 09:50 PM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |
| Dooho Choi | Daniel Santos ← pick | Santos |
82%
Strong
|
KO/TKO50% | Choi | KO/TKO | May 17, 09:50 PM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |