Miss Autopsy Archive

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit
**UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim | 2026-06-06**

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### What Held
- 75% accuracy (9/12) represents solid card performance
- Undercard reads were strong: correctly called Souza, Chaves, Brito, Chandler, Cháirez, McGhee, Costa, and Baraniewski—all at modest confidence levels that proved reliable
- Baraniewski pick (0.65 confidence) was our highest-conviction correct call; KO/TKO finish validated the read
- Allen over Shahbazyan held as expected

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### What We Missed
- **Main event miss**: Picked Muhammad (0.5354) but Bonfim won by decision—model underestimated Bonfim's ability to outwork a former champion over five rounds
- **Mitchell vs. Luna**: Picked Luna (0.5354) but Mitchell won by submission—reversal suggests model may have overweighted recent Luna momentum or undervalued Mitchell's grappling home advantage
- **Ziam vs. Nolan**: Picked Ziam (0...

# FightEdge Post-Event Audit
**UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo | 2026-05-30**

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## What Held
- **75% accuracy (9/12)** — solid performance across a card with several close matchups
- High-confidence picks delivered: Angela Hill (70.4%) and Cody Haddon (62%) both correct
- Correctly identified all four submission/grappling-decided bouts (Amorim, Tsuruya, Song)
- Main event call on Song Yadong landed despite moderate confidence (53.5%)

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## What We Missed
- **Kai Asakura vs. Smotherman**: Highest-confidence pick of the card (75.6%) went to Smotherman; Asakura won by KO/TKO — significant miss suggesting overvaluation of Smotherman or underestimation of Asakura's finishing ability
- **Zhang Mingyang vs. Menifield**: Picked Zhang at 53.5%; Menifield won by KO/TKO — model may have discounted Menifield's power at light heavyweight
- **Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique**: Slight lean towa...

**FightEdge Post-Event Audit**
**UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa | 2026-05-16**

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**What Held**

- Overall accuracy of 61.5% (8/13) is serviceable but below target thresholds
- High-confidence picks on Alice Ardelean (0.85) and Ketlen Vieira (0.85) both landed correctly
- Low-confidence coin-flip picks (Gantt, Khaos Williams, Erslan) all converted, suggesting baseline fighter assessments were sound
- Main event call on Arnold Allen correct despite razor-thin confidence (0.50)

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**What We Missed**

- Two high-confidence misses hurt significantly: Petroski (0.85) lost to Brundage via KO/TKO; Santos (0.82) lost to Dooho Choi via KO/TKO—both finishes suggest model underweighted knockout volatility
- Wellmaker pick (0.75) fell to Diaz by submission; another finish-risk blind spot
- Bannon and Barez picks were near 50-50 confidence and lost—acceptable variance, but both opponents won ...

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC 328 (2026-05-09)

### What Held
- Finished 7/12 scored picks (58.3%), near baseline expectations for a card with several coin-flip lines
- High-confidence calls delivered: King Green (SUB), Ateba Gautier (KO/TKO), and Baisangur Susurkaev (SUB) all won as predicted at 0.85 confidence
- Low-confidence leans on Amosov, Kopylov, Ochoa, and Volkov all landed correctly despite tight margins (0.50-0.54 range)

### What We Missed
- **Chimaev vs Strickland**: Picked Chimaev at 0.565 confidence; Strickland won by decision—model may have underweighted Strickland's range management and defensive wrestling
- **Brady vs Buckley**: Near-toss-up pick (0.504) went to Brady by decision; minimal edge claimed, minimal damage
- **Gomis vs Sabatini**: Higher-confidence miss (0.72 on Gomis); Sabatini won by decision—needs review of what factors inflated Gomis confidence
- **R...

**FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC Fight Night Della Maddalena vs. Prates (2026-05-02)**

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**What Held**

Model achieved 75% accuracy (9/12), performing well across confidence levels. High-confidence picks on Quillan Salkilld (0.80) and Brando Pericic (0.85) both landed via KO/TKO. The main event coin-flip on Carlos Prates (0.50) proved correct. Mid-confidence selections on Jonathan Micallef, Colby Thicknesse, and Marwan Rahiki all converted cleanly. Low-confidence calls on Wes Schultz and Cam Rowston also hit.

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**What We Missed**

Three losses, all at low confidence: Junior Tafa defeated Kevin Christian by KO/TKO (model picked Christian at 0.51); Steve Erceg beat Tim Elliott by decision (model picked Elliott at 0.51); Louie Sutherland upset Tai Tuivasa by decision (model favored Tuivasa at 0.75). The Tuivasa miss stands out as the only loss above coin-flip confidence—worth revie...

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC Fight Night 2026-04-25

**Overall: 8/13 correct (61.5%)**

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### What Held

- High-confidence picks delivered: Francis Marshall (0.85) and Michelle Montague (0.739) both won by decision as predicted.
- Mid-confidence calls on Sterling, Garcia, Grant, Alencar, Spann, and Valenzuela all landed correctly.
- Spann pick over Buchecha was validated with a KO/TKO finish, suggesting the model read that matchup well.

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### What We Missed

- **Rodolfo Vieira vs Eric McConico**: Model favored Vieira at 0.62 confidence; McConico won by decision. Possible overvaluation of Vieira's grappling pedigree.
- **Montel Jackson vs Raoni Barcelos**: Slight edge given to Jackson (0.53); Barcelos took the decision. Close call, but worth reviewing Barcelos's recent form factors.
- **Norma Dumont vs Joselyne Edwards**: Model leaned Dumont (0.54); Edwards won. May need to r...

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit
### UFC Fight Night 2026-04-18

**Overall: 6/12 (50.0%)**

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### What Held

- Burns vs Malott call landed correctly at 62.5% confidence with KO/TKO finish
- Higher-confidence picks (Buzukja/Barbosa at 56%, Saricam at 55%, Young at 58%) all converted
- Low-confidence correct calls (Jasudavicius 57%, Croden 50%) suggest model captured subtle edges in women's bouts

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### What We Missed

- **Phillips vs Jourdain**: Picked Phillips (52.5%) but Jourdain won via decision; model may have underweighted Jourdain's output at range
- **Leblanc vs Valentin**: Confident miss (62.8%) with Valentin winning by submission; grappling threat assessment needs review
- **Siraj vs Yannis**: 59.6% confidence miss via KO/TKO; potential durability or power gap underestimation
- **Castaneda vs Vologdin**: Draw outcome—model doesn't account for draw probability
- **Nallo vs Herb...

**FightEdge Post-Event Audit – UFC 327 (2026-04-11)**

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**What Held**

Model went 8/12 (66.7% accuracy) on a card with mostly low-confidence selections. Correct calls on Ulberg over Prochazka, Gamrot via SUB, and Suarez via SUB demonstrate reasonable grappling/finishing awareness. The Radtke pick (0.584 confidence) was the highest-confidence correct call, landing as predicted. Veteran reads on Swanson and Reyes also held despite both being decision-distance fights.

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**What We Missed**

- **Murzakanov vs Costa:** Picked Murzakanov at 0.596 confidence; Costa won by KO/TKO. Model underestimated Costa's power or overweighted Murzakanov's wrestling edge.
- **Holland vs Brown:** Picked Brown at 0.538; Holland won by decision. Holland's unpredictability and reach may have been undervalued.
- **Gastelum vs Luque:** Picked Gastelum at 0.502 (near coin-flip); Luque won by SUB. Low confide...

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit
**UFC Fight Night 2026-04-04**

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### What Held
- Finished 8/13 correct (61.5% accuracy), with solid mid-confidence calls landing cleanly
- Higher-confidence picks performed well: Yakhyaev (0.76) and Costa (0.65) both won as predicted
- Lower-profile fighters like Ewing, McMillen, and Delano all came through at modest confidence levels
- Jandiroba, Kamaka III, and Pereira wins validated baseline modeling in competitive matchups

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### What We Missed
- **Main event (Moicano vs Duncan):** Picked Duncan at 0.54 confidence; Moicano won by submission—potential underestimation of Moicano's grappling threat
- **Vannata vs Flowers:** Vannata favored at 0.68 but lost by KO/TKO—one of the higher-confidence misses; Flowers' power may have been underweighted
- **Bekoev vs Gore:** Picked Bekoev at 0.57; Gore won by submission—submission defense modeling needs revie...