Transparency · Track Record

Prediction History

Track record, live result status, and model calibration on real cards.
66%
Tracked Accuracy (78/118)
118
Predictions Scored
10
Events Tracked
0.239
Brier Score
76.4%
Walk-Forward Benchmark
Trend
10-Fight Rolling Accuracy
109 windows
Each bar is the previous 10 scored winner picks, ordered by event date. This shows live performance convergence without changing the canonical scored history.
Accuracy by Confidence Zone
Current: W10 Maturing sample
Strong 65%+
68%
19/28 correct
Expected 21.8 wins; delta -2.8
Lean 57-64%
60%
9/15 correct
Expected 9.1 wins; delta -0.1
Thin sample
Coin Flip <57%
67%
50/75 correct
Expected 39.3 wins; delta +10.7
Exact Method Accuracy Exact 43/114 (38%)
KO / TKO
36%
19/53 exact hits
Submission
75%
3/4 exact hits
Decision
37%
21/57 exact hits
Event Results 10 shown / 10 total
57%
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
June 14, 2026 Jun 14, 08:00 PM ET Washington
4/7 scored - last scored Jun 15, 05:11 AM
Final
Winner 4/7 picks
Method 3/6 exact
Details
75%
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
June 6, 2026 Jun 06, 05:00 PM ET Las Vegas
9/12 scored - last scored Jun 07, 02:57 AM
Final
Winner 9/12 picks
Method 4/12 exact
Details
75%
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
May 30, 2026 May 30, 04:00 AM ET Cotai
9/12 scored - last scored May 30, 01:43 PM
Final
Winner 9/12 picks
Method 6/12 exact
Details
62%
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
May 16, 2026 May 16, 05:00 PM ET Las Vegas
8/13 scored - last scored May 17, 09:50 PM
Final
Winner 8/13 picks
Method 4/13 exact
Details
69%
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
May 9, 2026 May 09, 05:00 PM ET Newark
9/13 scored - last scored May 18, 09:05 PM
Final
Winner 9/13 picks
Method 2/13 exact
Details
69%
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
May 2, 2026 May 02, 04:00 AM ET Perth
9/13 scored - last scored May 18, 09:05 PM
Final
Winner 9/13 picks
Method 6/13 exact
Details
62%
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
April 25, 2026 Apr 25, 05:00 PM ET Las Vegas
8/13 scored - last scored Apr 26, 06:49 PM
Final
Winner 8/13 picks
Method 5/11 exact
Details
55%
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
April 18, 2026 Apr 18, 05:00 PM ET Winnipeg
6/11 scored - last scored May 21, 05:18 AM
Final
Winner 6/11 picks
Method 4/11 exact
Details
73%
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
April 11, 2026
8/11 scored - last scored Apr 11, 11:59 PM
Final
Winner 8/11 picks
Method 3/10 exact
Details
62%
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
April 4, 2026 Apr 04, 05:00 PM ET Las Vegas
8/13 scored - last scored Apr 05, 05:39 PM
Final
Winner 8/13 picks
Method 6/13 exact
Details
Predictions made before the v3.0 rebuild used a previous version. Current active predictor: In-house proprietary rule + Elo predictor (76.4% walk-forward across 7 annual windows, 3160 out-of-sample fights). A prior ML ensemble blend was retired in v3.2.7 after walk-forward validation showed it degraded probability calibration in every window (+0.02 to +0.04 Brier) with no consistent accuracy gain.