UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
May 2, 2026 •
Fight-by-fight prediction accuracy
13
Fights
13
Scored Picks
9
Correct
69%
Accuracy
Method Tracking
6/13 exact methods
Exact Method Accuracy
46%
Winner + finish bucket both correct
Data Coverage
0
0 missing result method • 0 missing predicted method
Post-Fight Recap
The model went 9/13 (69%) on this card. Exact methods landed 6/13 (46%). Best call: Thicknesse at 85% confidence. Biggest miss: Fan at 81% confidence. Solid card for the model.
Fight-by-Fight Results
| Fighter A | Fighter B | Predicted | Confidence | Pred Method | Actual Winner | Actual Method | Scored | Source | Winner Result | Method Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marwan Rahiki ← pick | Ollie Schmid | Rahiki |
75%
Strong
|
KO/TKO57% | Rahiki | KO/TKO | May 18, 09:05 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Tai Tuivasa ← pick | Louie Sutherland | Tuivasa |
75%
Strong
|
KO/TKO53% | Sutherland | DEC | May 18, 09:05 PM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |
| Carlos Prates ← pick | Jack Della Maddalena | Prates |
50%
Coin flip
|
DEC26% | Prates | KO/TKO | May 02, 02:16 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Miss |
| Beneil Dariush | Quillan Salkilld ← pick | Salkilld |
80%
Strong
|
KO/TKO41% | Salkilld | KO/TKO | May 02, 01:27 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Tim Elliott ← pick | Steve Erceg | Elliott |
51%
Coin flip
|
DEC23% | Erceg | DEC | May 02, 01:07 PM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |
| Shamil Gaziev | Brando Peričić | Pericic |
85%
Strong
|
KO/TKO61% | Peričić | KO/TKO | May 02, 12:04 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Robert Bryczek | Cam Rowston ← pick | Rowston |
54%
Coin flip
|
KO/TKO30% | Rowston | DEC | May 02, 11:02 AM | Auto-scored | Correct | Miss |
| Junior Tafa | Kevin Christian ← pick | Christian |
51%
Coin flip
|
DEC20% | Tafa | KO/TKO | May 02, 10:32 AM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |
| Gerald Meerschaert | Jacob Malkoun ← pick | Malkoun |
54%
Coin flip
|
SUB20% | Malkoun | SUB | May 02, 10:19 AM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Vince Morales | Colby Thicknesse ← pick | Thicknesse |
85%
Strong
|
DEC12% | Thicknesse | DEC | May 02, 09:52 AM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Wes Schultz ← pick | Ben Johnston | Schultz |
50%
Coin flip
|
DEC0% | Schultz | SUB | May 02, 09:20 AM | Owner backfill | Correct | Miss |
| Themba Gorimbo | Jonathan Micallef ← pick | Micallef |
75%
Strong
|
DEC16% | Micallef | DEC | May 02, 08:53 AM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Dom Mar Fan ← pick | Kody Steele | Fan |
81%
Strong
|
DEC41% | Steele | SUB | May 02, 08:22 AM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |