UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
April 4, 2026 •
Fight-by-fight prediction accuracy
13
Fights
13
Scored Picks
8
Correct
62%
Accuracy
Method Tracking
6/13 exact methods
Exact Method Accuracy
46%
Winner + finish bucket both correct
Data Coverage
0
0 missing result method • 0 missing predicted method
Post-Fight Recap
The model went 8/13 (62%) on this card. Exact methods landed 6/13 (46%). Best call: Yakhyaev at 76% confidence. Biggest miss: Vannata at 68% confidence. Solid card for the model.
Fight-by-Fight Results
| Fighter A | Fighter B | Predicted | Confidence | Pred Method | Actual Winner | Actual Method | Scored | Source | Winner Result | Method Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethyn Ewing ← pick | Rafael Estevam | Ewing |
51%
Coin flip
|
DEC40% | Ewing | KO/TKO | Apr 05, 05:39 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Miss |
| Virna Jandiroba ← pick | Tabatha Ricci | Jandiroba |
50%
Coin flip
|
DEC33% | Jandiroba | DEC | Apr 05, 05:39 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Kai Kamaka III ← pick | Dakota Hope | Kamaka |
56%
Coin flip
|
DEC30% | Kamaka | DEC | Apr 05, 05:39 PM | Manual | Correct | Exact |
| Dione Barbosa | Melissa Gatto ← pick | Gatto |
54%
Coin flip
|
DEC27% | Barbosa | DEC | Apr 05, 05:38 PM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |
| Azamat Bekoev ← pick | Tresean Gore | Bekoev |
57%
Lean
|
KO/TKO46% | Gore | SUB | Apr 05, 05:38 PM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |
| Alice Pereira ← pick | Hailey Cowan | Pereira |
52%
Coin flip
|
DEC35% | Pereira | KO/TKO | Apr 05, 05:38 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Miss |
| Lando Vannata ← pick | Darrius Flowers | Vannata |
68%
Strong
|
SUB25% | Flowers | KO/TKO | Apr 05, 05:38 PM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |
| Alessandro Costa ← pick | Stewart Nicoll | Costa |
65%
Lean
|
KO/TKO39% | Costa | KO/TKO | Apr 05, 05:38 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Guilherme Pat ← pick | Thomas Petersen | Pat |
55%
Coin flip
|
DEC44% | Petersen | DEC | Apr 05, 05:38 PM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |
| Jose Delano ← pick | Robert Ruchala | Delano |
55%
Coin flip
|
DEC38% | Delano | DEC | Apr 05, 05:38 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Tommy McMillen ← pick | Manolo Zecchini | McMillen |
61%
Lean
|
KO/TKO26% | McMillen | KO/TKO | Apr 05, 05:38 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev ← pick | Brendson Ribeiro | Yakhyaev |
76%
Strong
|
SUB35% | Yakhyaev | SUB | Apr 05, 05:38 PM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Renato Moicano | Chris Duncan ← pick | Duncan |
54%
Coin flip
|
KO/TKO21% | Moicano | SUB | Apr 05, 05:38 PM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |