UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
June 14, 2026 •
Fight-by-fight prediction accuracy
7
Fights
7
Scored Picks
4
Correct
57%
Accuracy
Method Tracking
3/6 exact methods
Exact Method Accuracy
50%
Winner + finish bucket both correct
Data Coverage
1
0 missing result method • 1 missing predicted method
Post-Fight Recap
The model went 4/7 (57%) on this card. Exact methods landed 3/6 (50%). Best call: Hokit at 77% confidence. Biggest miss: Topuria at 76% confidence. Solid card for the model.
Fight-by-Fight Results
| Fighter A | Fighter B | Predicted | Confidence | Pred Method | Actual Winner | Actual Method | Scored | Source | Winner Result | Method Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | Ilia Topuria ← pick | Topuria |
76%
Strong
|
KO/TKO46% | Gaethje | KO/TKO | Jun 15, 05:11 AM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |
| Ciryl Gane | Alex Pereira ← pick | Pereira |
52%
Coin flip
|
KO/TKO38% | Gane | KO/TKO | Jun 15, 04:08 AM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |
| Aiemann Zahabi | Sean O'Malley ← pick | O'Malley |
51%
Coin flip
|
Unknown | O'Malley | KO/TKO | Jun 15, 03:26 AM | Auto-scored | Correct | No pick |
| Derrick Lewis | Josh Hokit ← pick | Hokit |
77%
Strong
|
KO/TKO37% | Hokit | KO/TKO | Jun 15, 02:51 AM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Michael Chandler | Mauricio Ruffy ← pick | Ruffy |
76%
Strong
|
KO/TKO55% | Ruffy | KO/TKO | Jun 15, 02:13 AM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Kyle Daukaus | Bo Nickal ← pick | Nickal |
54%
Coin flip
|
KO/TKO23% | Nickal | KO/TKO | Jun 15, 01:33 AM | Auto-scored | Correct | Exact |
| Steve Garcia ← pick | Diego Lopes | Garcia |
54%
Coin flip
|
KO/TKO36% | Lopes | KO/TKO | Jun 15, 01:07 AM | Auto-scored | Wrong | Miss |